By David Michael Terungwa
Now that we officially have less than seven years to act to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (1.5°C), as agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, urgent action is required more than ever before to deal with the increasing risks of climate change across the globe.
From every indication, it is indeed evidently clear that the global commitments from government leaders and industry are not on track to meet the 1.5°C climate target. People all the world are already suffering from catastrophic losses as a result of extreme weather events. The record breaking #Heatwave2022 in one classic evidence in this regard.
According to the latest report by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in the first quarter of this year, people and ecosystems least able to cope are being hardest hit. The report entitled, “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”, which was approved by 195 member governments of the IPCC, noted that the world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F).
It further stated that increased heatwaves, droughts and floods are already exceeding plants’ and animals’ tolerance thresholds, driving mass mortalities in species such as trees and corals, adding that these weather extremes, are occurring simultaneously, causing cascading impacts that are increasingly difficult to manage. Consequently, they have exposed millions of people to acute food and water insecurity, especially in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, on Small Islands and in the Arctic.
By and large, the climate clock is warning us on the need to take urgent steps and intensify our collective efforts toward limiting global warming at 1.5 and 2.0°C relative to the pre-industrial level.
Chair of the IPCC, Hoesung Lee said the report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction. “It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks”, he said.
Similarly, the Economist’s environment editor, Catherine Brahic observed that meeting the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 to 2°C global warming limit is becoming increasingly difficult as time goes on and nearly impossible to achieve within the century without an overshoot. Meanwhile, climate models warn that emissions must peak by 2025 to meet the target just three years away.
She however, pointed out that emissions trend shows the opposite as “emissions are rising yearly, putting us off track to peaking by 2025. Government pledges and policies are vital to reaching the Paris Agreement targets. Current guidelines also put us on a path to a 1.5°C”.
Looking at this trend from an African perspective vis-à-vis the scenario playing out across the continent, I cannot but agree completely with both of them. It is a common knowledge that in spite of its low contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, Africa remains the most vulnerable continent to climate change impacts under all climate scenarios above 1.5°C.
African Development Bank (AfDB) says the continent contributed the least to global warming and having the lowest emissions, yet it is confronted by exponential collateral damage, posing systemic risks to its economies, infrastructure investments, water and food systems, public health, agriculture, and livelihoods, threatening to undo its modest development gains and slip into higher levels of extreme poverty, noting that these factors play a major role in aggravating Africa’s vulnerability.
The Bank also asserted that seven of the 10 countries that are most vulnerable to climate change are in Africa, adding that in 2015, four African countries ranked among the 10 countries most affected: Mozambique (1st), Malawi (3rd), Ghana and Madagascar (joint 8th position).
Notably, climate change equally constitutes another threat to Africa’s aspiration for the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) The IPCC report 2018 highlighted the grave consequences of a temperature increase above 1.5°C, especially for Africa.
The enormity of the task for Africa now can been seen in the findings of a recent survey commissioned by United Nation Environment Programme (UNEP), which estimates that the cost of adapting to climate change across Africa could reach $50 billion a year by 2050, if the global temperature increase is kept within 2°C above preindustrial levels.
At the global level, scientists and researchers have pinpointed the nexus between climate change and global trends such as unsustainable use of natural resources, growing urbanization, social inequalities, losses and damages from extreme events and a pandemic, jeopardizing future development.
It has been unequivocally established that climate change interacts with these trends, thereby compounding the problem. Responding to this development, IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair Debra Roberts said: “Our assessment clearly shows that tackling all these different challenges involves everyone – governments, the private sector, civil society, working together to prioritize risk reduction, as well as equity and justice, in decision-making and investment”.
Going forward
In line with the Paris Agreement reached at COP21, all countries agreed to take collective action on climate change to keep global temperature increases to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, there are ongoing efforts which need to be intensified and consolidated in other to achieve the desired results
African countries have outlined bold aspirations to build climate resilient and low-carbon economies in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. As of November 2019, 49 African countries out of 54 had ratified their NDCs.
Some of the identified solutions to global warming in Africa include effective land use planning to avoid forest degradation, developing renewable energy, and limiting the expansion of coal-fired power plants. Interestingly a good number of these countries are also steps in the direction and getting results.
AfDB aptly captured the trend in the continent when it stated that “having signed and ratified the Paris Agreement, nearly all African countries have committed to enhancing climate action through reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and building resilience. For the continent, adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change is urgent”. How this sense of urgency will change the narrative in Africa and the rest of the world, only time will tell. I rest my case!
David Michael Terungwa is the Team Lead, Global Initiative for Food Security and Ecosystem Preservation (GIFSEP), an Abuja-based non-profit organization founded on the ideals of environment education, climate change adaptation and mitigation, renewable energy and sustainable development.