By Jamilu M Magaji,
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks his third year in office, the debate over his administration’s performance continues across Nigeria. Yet beyond political arguments and public perceptions, available data released by government agencies, independent institutions and international development partners point to notable shifts across key sectors of the economy.
When Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, Nigeria was grappling with declining revenues, mounting subsidy costs, foreign exchange distortions, rising debt concerns, insecurity and weakening investor confidence. Three years later, the administration maintains that difficult reforms have begun laying the foundation for long-term recovery and growth.
Economic Reforms and Fiscal Recovery
One of the most consequential decisions of the Tinubu administration was the removal of fuel subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market. While the reforms initially triggered inflationary pressures and increased living costs, economic indicators suggest improvements in government finances and macroeconomic stability.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s economy recorded sustained growth across several quarters, with GDP expanding by 3.84 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven largely by services, agriculture and non-oil sectors. Reports from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) also indicate a gradual strengthening of external reserves and improved liquidity within the foreign exchange market. Available data released by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) show that tax revenues have risen significantly since 2023, reflecting improved revenue mobilisation efforts.
Similarly, in its recent Article IV Consultation reports, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) acknowledged that Nigeria had undertaken major fiscal reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, improving public finances and enhancing investor confidence.
Agriculture and Food Security Efforts
Food security quickly emerged as a central pillar of the Renewed Hope Agenda.
According to the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, the government launched one of the largest agricultural mechanisation programmes in Nigeria’s history, deploying over 2,000 tractors and more than 9,000 farming implements across farming communities nationwide. Available records from the ministry also show increased investments in irrigation systems, mechanised farming and agricultural support programmes designed to improve local food production and reduce dependence on imports.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has consistently emphasised mechanisation, improved inputs and productivity-driven reforms as critical tools for addressing food insecurity in developing economies, a position that aligns with the administration’s agricultural intervention framework.
Security Operations and Counter-Terrorism Gains
Security remains one of the most critical benchmarks for assessing governance.
According to figures released by the Defence Headquarters, military operations conducted under the current administration have led to the neutralisation of more than 8,000 terrorists and bandits, while over 11,600 criminal suspects have been arrested nationwide. Defence authorities further report that more than 124,000 Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters and their family members surrendered during intensified counter-insurgency operations in the North-East.
Independent monitoring platforms, including the Nigeria Security Tracker of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), have documented evolving security trends across conflict-prone regions, showing improvements in some areas even as challenges persist in others. Government officials attribute these developments to increased investments in intelligence gathering, military hardware, surveillance systems and broader security sector reforms.
Expanding Industry and Non-Oil Exports
The administration’s diversification strategy has focused heavily on industrialisation and non-oil export growth.
According to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nigeria’s non-oil exports reached record levels in recent years, reflecting growing competitiveness in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and solid minerals. Data released by the Bank of Industry (BOI) show that hundreds of billions of naira have been disbursed to support businesses operating across manufacturing, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors.
Reports from the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission (NIPC) also indicate growing investment commitments across strategic sectors of the economy. Similarly, successive Nigeria Development Update reports by the World Bank have highlighted the importance of economic diversification, revenue reforms and private-sector-led growth in sustaining long-term development.
Conclusion
Three years into the Tinubu presidency, Nigeria remains in a period of economic and institutional transition. While many citizens continue to grapple with inflationary pressures and rising living costs, available data from the NBS, CBN, FIRS, NEPC, BOI, NELFUND, IMF, World Bank and other institutions suggest measurable shifts in revenue generation, infrastructure development, agricultural mechanisation, external reserves, non-oil exports and public sector reforms.
The pains associated with these reforms are temporary and necessary for long-term prosperity. Evidence from government agencies and international development institutions points to improvements in fiscal stability, infrastructure expansion, investment inflows and security operations, although many Nigerians are yet to fully experience these gains in their daily lives.
Ultimately, history may judge the administration not only by the boldness of its reforms but by its ability to translate economic progress and policy achievements into tangible improvements in the welfare, incomes and opportunities of ordinary Nigerians.
As the government enters its fourth year, there are growing indications that the foundations laid through difficult but far-reaching reforms may begin to yield more visible dividends. If sustained with discipline, transparency and effective implementation, these policies have the potential to accelerate economic recovery, create jobs, attract investment and improve living standards. While challenges remain, there is reason for cautious optimism that the reforms undertaken today could deliver the inclusive growth and prosperity envisioned under the Renewed Hope Agenda.
Mr Magaji, a Public Affairs Analyst in Birnin Kebbi, can be reached at: mjmagaji@gmail.com.