By Dr Joachim I. Ezeji, PhD, MBA, PMP
The proposed deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the 2027 general elections raises fundamental questions about electoral integrity, transparency, accountability and public trust.
In a country where electoral credibility remains fiercely contested, introducing sophisticated technology without demonstrable safeguards could deepen public suspicion rather than strengthen confidence.
Artificial intelligence offers significant opportunities to improve election administration, detect irregularities and enhance operational efficiency. However, it also creates new vulnerabilities that could be exploited to manipulate electoral processes. The central issue is not the technology itself, but who controls it, how it operates and whether its decisions can be independently verified.
Three risks deserve particular attention. First is manipulation using AI, including deepfakes, disinformation and digitally coordinated voter suppression. Second is manipulation of AI systems through compromised algorithms, biased datasets, cyberattacks or unauthorized alteration of electoral records. Third is manipulation concealed by AI, where technological complexity obscures questionable decisions and frustrates independent scrutiny.
These concerns become particularly significant against the backdrop of recent political declarations by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.
Wike’s Political Predictions and Electoral Credibility
Wike’s repeated expressions of confidence that President Bola Tinubu will secure electoral victories in Rivers State and the Federal Capital Territory deserve critical examination. Political leaders are entitled to predict electoral success. However, categorical declarations about elections yet to be conducted inevitably raise questions about the distinction between legitimate political confidence and perceptions of predetermined outcomes.
The FCT has historically presented significant electoral challenges for the All-Progressives Congress (APC) in presidential contests. The controversies surrounding the 2023 presidential election, particularly disputed results in Rivers State, have also contributed to persistent public debate about electoral transparency.
Although allegations of manipulation must be distinguished from legally established findings, the broader issue remains: no political actor should appear capable of determining electoral outcomes before citizens cast their ballots.
Against this background, INEC’s proposed introduction of AI requires exceptional transparency. The Commission must demonstrate that the technology will strengthen electoral accountability rather than provide another layer of complexity through which irregularities could become difficult to detect or challenge.
The Unresolved Questions from 2023
The 2023 general elections exposed serious public concerns about the reliability of electoral technology, particularly the transmission and publication of presidential polling-unit results through the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV).
The technical difficulties experienced during that election generated controversy and weakened confidence among sections of the electorate. Whatever explanations INEC has offered, restoring public trust requires independently verifiable evidence that identified weaknesses have been addressed.
Introducing AI without adequately demonstrating improvements in existing electoral systems risks repeating this confidence deficit.
An AI system may correctly establish that figures on a polling-unit result sheet are mathematically consistent without determining whether those figures accurately represent votes cast. Similarly, an algorithm may identify unusual voting patterns, but statistical anomalies alone cannot establish electoral fraud.
Artificial intelligence can detect inconsistencies; it cannot independently establish electoral truth. This distinction is fundamental.
Can AI Facilitate Electoral Manipulation?
The possibility cannot be dismissed, although the proposed deployment itself does not establish an intention to manipulate elections.
AI systems can be compromised through unauthorized access, manipulated training data, opaque decision rules and weaknesses in cybersecurity architecture. Deepfake videos, cloned voices and fabricated electoral announcements can also distort public understanding and influence voter behaviour.
More troubling is the possibility that automated systems could create an appearance of scientific credibility around results that have not been independently authenticated.
Nigeria must therefore avoid replacing familiar electoral vulnerabilities with technologically sophisticated ones.
Six Safeguards INEC Must Establish
To restore confidence and minimize manipulation risks, INEC should implement six safeguards before deploying AI.
- Independent technical audits. Qualified external specialists should assess cybersecurity, algorithmic accuracy, biometric error rates, data integrity and system resilience. Testing must simulate realistic election-day conditions, including network failures, equipment malfunctions and heavy transaction volumes.
- Mandatory human oversight. AI must identify potential irregularities, not independently reject votes, modify results or determine winners. Every consequential automated finding should be documented, explainable and subject to human review.
- Verifiable electoral records. A transparent chain of evidence must connect polling-unit results to final declarations. Signed original records, authenticated digital transmissions, timestamps, audit trails and independently reconciled figures should remain accessible for lawful verification.
- Independent stakeholder oversight. Electoral administrators, political parties, cybersecurity experts, academic institutions, civil society organizations and accredited observers should participate in a structured oversight mechanism with appropriate access to technical documentation and audit findings.
- Biometric and data protection. AI-assisted voter verification must incorporate safeguards against wrongful exclusion, unauthorized access and personal-data breaches. Clear procedures should exist for correcting errors and protecting voters’ rights.
- Public disclosure and accountability. INEC must explain precisely which AI applications it intends to deploy, their permitted functions, their limitations and the procedures for challenging automated findings.
These safeguards should form part of a publicly accessible Electoral AI Assurance Framework, supported by enforceable responsibilities and independent scrutiny.
Technology Cannot Substitute for Institutional Integrity
Nigeria’s electoral credibility ultimately depends on more than technological sophistication. It requires impartial administration, transparent collation, credible security arrangements, effective enforcement of electoral laws and genuinely accessible dispute-resolution mechanisms.
Three principles must therefore remain non-negotiable.
First, AI must never replace the legal and evidentiary foundations of electoral results. Original polling-unit records and lawful collation procedures must remain authoritative.
Second, AI must not operate as an electoral black box. Its functions, limitations and influence on decisions must be explainable and independently auditable.
Third, technology must serve democratic accountability rather than shield institutions or political actors from scrutiny.
Political figures, including Wike, must recognize that electoral legitimacy comes from voters, not declarations of anticipated victory. Equally, INEC must recognize that public confidence cannot be commanded through technological announcements; it must be earned through demonstrable transparency.
The question confronting Nigeria is therefore not whether artificial intelligence should be deployed, but whether its deployment will make electoral manipulation more difficult to perpetrate and easier to expose.
The ultimate safeguard against electoral manipulation is not artificial intelligence, but institutional integrity reinforced by transparent technology, independent verification and enforceable accountability.
That must be the defining standard for Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.