APC chances of winning the 2023 presidential election bright, Momoh Obaro

… says party needs to work harder

Chief Momoh Obaro is a Data Scientist, International Consultant and Secretary of the All Progressives Congress, (APC) in the United Kingdom, UK. As the country approaches next year’s general elections, the Software Engineer prepared a road map document to the Villa, where he dissects the problems and proffers solutions for his party.

In this encounter with Journalists, the Kogi-born Governorship Hopeful and grassroots mobilizer refers to his position paper, looks at the chances of the party and sets agenda for the incoming government tomorrow. Excerpts

2023 Presidency: How APC can win and fix Nigeria – Obaro, APC UK Secretary

THE ELECTION IS NOT ABOUT INDIVIDUALS

Electing public office holders is a serious business allover the world. It should not be reduced to a child’s play as some people do. It involves planning and careful execution of the plans. It is the essential Nigerian project. Get it wrong at this time, and get every other thing wrong for the next four years, at the shortest or even decade, as the case may be.

It’s about the voters and not about Tinubu, Atiku or any of the candidates. So we need to listen more than we talk. When we listen to others we are better prepared to meet their needs and know the reasons we are running.

Political thinking committees and political action committees are key as we decide between adverts and door-to-door campaigns.

What it takes to win an election are hard work, discipline and positive attitude. We must embrace these as we push the people at the centre of our campaigns and activities, because it’s really about the people.

Those who ruined Nigeria yesterday want to rule it today. Only the people can say No to them.

CHANCES OF RULING PARTY WINNING THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

APC’s chance of winning the presidential election is hanging in the balance. The party has done well in some areas, while it has failed in others. We must tell ourselves the truth, before we can correct the lapses.

A brief review of voting pattern in recent presidential polls can guide our expectations in the coming election. The pattern of presidential votes from 2015 to 2019 showed that NW contributed the highest votes of 46% in 2015 to the Party’s victory. In 2019, the same NW contributed 39% of APC’s winning votes.

The NE in 2015 contributed 18% and 21% in 2019. NC and SW contributed 16% each of the APC votes in 2015. In 2019, SW contribution decreased to 13%. The SE contributed a paltry 1% in 2015 and 3% in 2019. The SS contributed 3% in 2015 and 7% in 2019.

As can be seen from the data on Presidential votes in 2015 and 2019, we have support from four out of the six geopolitical zones: NW, NE, NC, and SW. We have performed woefully in the SE and SS.

Can we change the narrative in the SE now that Peter Obi from the geopolitical zone is running as the Labour Party’s presidential candidate? With regard to the SS, where the main opposition party – PDP, has their vice-presidential candidate, can we improve our electoral fortunes in the region? Your guess on both questions is likely to be as good as mine.

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF APC IN NORTH WEST AND NORTH EAST

The NW and NE where we have enjoyed dominance now seems threatened also. The PDP presidential candidate is from the NE. SE and NE of the country have produced Presidents for the country only once since independence. PDP’s Presidential candidate is from the NE.

WHAT CAN WE GIVE NORTH EAST TO MAKE THEM VOTE FOR TINUBU INSTEAD OF ATIKU

Conscious that their geopolitical zone has not produced a President since the First Republic could play on the sentiments of NE voters making them go for their own. Though in 2019 NE voters voted against their own with 21%, they may not necessarily do so in 2023 in favour of Jagaban.

Though there are positive signals in favour of APC in the NW from the NNPP presidential candidate, we nonetheless still face challenges in the NW as a result of the presence of Kwankwaso as a Presidential candidate of the NNPP and even as a result of Atiku’s candidacy.

NW AND NE VOTERS

Voters in NW and NE supported APC so much because of the person of the President – Muhammadu Buhari. The poor people trusted the president believing he would significantly improve their economic condition when on the saddle.

Tribe and religion were also other reasons people from these geopolitical zones overwhelmingly supported the president. These considerations are no longer there and so we need to generate other considerations that would sway these voters and retain their support for us. More can be done in this regard especially to make the voters feel at home with our candidates

EFFECT OF BUHARI’S VOTERS

It is public knowledge that President Muhammodu Buhari has diehard from followers across the country, especially in the north. Unfortunately, he is not on the ballot for APC to harvest the votes of his cultic followers , this time.

The party must therefore find a way of making the voters trust the new candidates of the party enough to vote for them. One of the practical ways of doing this is for the party to provide a concrete plan to assure voters (new and Buhari voters) that their votes for the party would bring them a lot of good.

APC THREE R’S – RELIEF, REFORM, RECOVERY

The APC government’s objective at the onset of the administration in 2015 is spelt out in the party’s manifesto as the three Rs – Relief, Reform & Recovery. The three Rs were sought to be prosecuted through fighting insecurity, fighting corruption and revamping the economy.

The APC’s government scorecard on the three Rs could have been better, at least in the eyes of the Nigerian people. The Party needs to have a thorough review of its performance in government using the three Rs objectives as metrics.

The goal here is to tell the story of our success and admit our failures. We must not allow the opposition to tell our stories and push us into the defense.

REVIEW OF APC GOVERNMENT’S PERFORMANCE

The party must have a review of the performance of its government in curbing insecurity (banditry, Boko haram, kidnapping, Fulani herders et cetera). It must also review its performance on tackling hunger, poverty, unemployment, Infrastructural decay, Corruption, religious and ethnic division in the country and ethnic nationalism.

NEED TO UNDERSTAND THE OPPONENTS

We need to understand the opponents – other parties and their candidates’ weaknesses and strengths. They really do not provide credible alternative to the APC. Without doubts, the big issues that dominate the minds of most Nigerians today are: insecurity, joblessness and hunger

INSECURITY PROBLEMS

There has been a marked increase in kidnapping, banditry, insurgency, and advance fee fraud cases (419, yahoo boys, and ritual killing for money et cetera).

Insecurity has created panic and fear in people’s minds and has assumed an existential threat to the country.

Insecurity has caused wanton destruction of lives and property, obstructed commercial activities, and discouraged local and foreign investments. Insecurity has suppressed Nigeria’s socio-economic growth.

GlobalTerrorism Index (GTI) placed Nigeria 6th in the terrorism index in 2021, just ahead of Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Burkina Faso, and Syria.

The above has grave consequences on our reputation, perception of our country and by extension on investments – local and foreign, economic activities, etc.

The kidnapping of school children has particularly affected the educational sector to the extent that students, teachers, and the government are frustrated, leading to a severe decline in educational quality and even quantity. You will also recall the kidnapping of train travellers and others.

Our security agencies are overwhelmed and as a result unable to guarantee security, resulting in the grounding of economic activities in various locations in the country. Over 6 million small arms are circulating in Nigeria, according to the 2020 SBM Intelligence report. This jeopardizes the stability, security, and investment in the country.

ECONOMY AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

There is massive unemployment in the country. Unemployment is substantially the cause of poverty, hunger, and insecurity in the land.

Infrastructure – transportation, electricity, health, and communication are so weak that they cannot support economic growth.

Nigeria’s general unemployment rate is above 33%, while youth unemployment is over 50%. This is not only serious; it is calamitous.

With inflation above 15% in a country; with high unemployment, irregular and unpaid salaries, insecurity would naturally stalk the land.

Infrastructure supports economic activities. To mention a few, a nation’s network of roads, railways, electricity, and health system is the foundation upon which productive activities thrive. In Nigeria today, most of these infrastructures are not anything near optimal condition. Knowing this to be the state of our infrastructure, President Muhammadu Buhari recently said Nigeria needs $1.5 Trillion to fix the infrastructure gap in the country over the next ten years.

CORRUPTION

The decay of morality and values over the years has led to a state of anomie in which corruption is the order of the day. Corruption has become endemic and chronic in the country. Misappropriation and waste of the nation’s precious resources are on an epidemic scale.

THE WAY OUT

We must first, admit the obvious then set up a defence. On all the big issues confronting Nigerians listed above, we should admit our inability to tackle successfully some of these issues, then set up an alibi for such inability.

Proposed fixes for these issues:

Insecurity: Where do we start? I think a good starting place are the rural areas. Rural areas hold the nation’s resources: the land, other natural resources, and the people. Most insecurity and criminal activities are hatched in the rural area before they spread to the rest of the country. Most rural dwellers are very poor and therefore vulnerable to being recruited for criminal activities.

If we can tackle poverty of the rural populace, we would have brought prosperity and well-being to the rural populace thereby dealing with insecurity in the whole country.

Law enforcement in Nigeria has been poor. This may be because of the concentration of law enforcement agencies at the Federal level. There will be need for police to be decentralized to the various levels of governments in Nigeria viz: local, state, and federal and also to multiple sectors: Transport police, forestry police, waterways police, sports police, etc. These will enable people with local and specialist knowledge to take charge of policing.

Quick fixes

Local councils should have an effective and functioning government. The security architecture in the local areas should be reviewed with a view to strengthening it. The Local Government being the nearest unit of adminisration to the people, must be reformed to own and drive communal development. The last tier of government should be strengthened in a way that truly returns power to the people.

Putting in place a rural development fund to cater for the provision of rural infrastructure – Transportation, power, Water, Health, Education, Communication, and Sanitation. This should be done in partnership with the state governments, Non-government Organizations (NGOs), the private sector, and the international development partners

Identification of people.

People should be identified with the houses they reside in. Houses should be identified with their streets.

The above information, once captured, will give an idea of the problem at hand such as actual population (not estimated number of people), physical development needs, and social amenities needs (hospitals, schools, communications, electricity, etc.).

Proper Mapping of resources of the rural areas: land (and its uses), other natural resources, unemployed people in the regions, their skill, etc. We can match community with their productive resources. Relevant industries will spring up from this to suck the unemployed natural resources and human skills in the areas concerned.

The above data, once captured will form the nation’s base data from where other data flows.

Other ways of dealing with corruption include:

Reduction of personal contact in government business.

Reviving government agencies like the post offices to deliver mails and messages to people’s homes and government offices. This will improve service delivery in most government ministries, departments, and agencies.

Adoption and adaptation of technology, especially information and communication technology in all areas of our life is crucial for accelerating economic development, fighting corruption, and securing the nation. Effective adoption and adaptation of technology depends on having the right and relevant data.

Acquisition of vital technological know-how.

We must encourage our universities and research institutions to acquire knowledge of critical technology that can turn our sun into power and our gas also into power.

Public finance management is one area corruption has thrived. Officeholders appropriate the budget of their offices as their own. Officeholders issue contracts to their own companies or companies controlled by their cronies. The use of technology in this area would help the management of our resources.

Moving forward, our gaze must be “fix corruption, fix insecurity; fix insecurity, fix the economy; fix the economy, fix poverty, hunger and unemployment.”