The Bloomberg and many other foreign news agencies have projected a massive defeat for the ruling APC in the 2019 presidential election. This is likely, considering numerous pointers like widespread APC in-fightings, massive insecurity in the North West, North East and North Central, nationwide hunger and job losses, the negative body language of Nigerians towards the APC. The nationwide resoluteness of Nigerians to boot the Buhari administration out of power, is seen in governorship runs such as Osun State, where the PDP had more votes in an election that was later declared inconclusive. This begs the question of the neutrality of the INEC.
This is where the international community will surely intervene just as they did in the DR Congo. The international community is keenly interested in the Nigeria politics because any rigging by the APC will strike off an already volatile country of 200m people which will lead to an immigration crisis around the world. Also, considering that they sent a note of warning to the APC concerning its brutish behavior in Osun, countries such as the US and the UK are concerned about the turn-out of the February election. The intervention of the international community in Congo is a major pointer at how the international community will intervene in the Nigeria elections. In the DR Congo, the opposition candidate won the just concluded presidential election and this will likely happen in Nigeria, considering the issues on ground. The INEC chairman would never want to come into conflict with countries like UN and the UK. This is a major reason why he will conduct a free and fair election.
Furthermore, in a lot of the states in the country, APC members are angry at the posture of the president in allowing the party to burn, while he supports both in-fighting sides. Ogun, Rivers, Zamfara and Imo APC all have blown out irreconcilable crises. This discounts other APC states whose in-fighting is not yet blown out. Just last week, a member of a faction in APC Rivers killed another member of the APC because of dispute concerning posting of APC posters. In Zamfara, the governor has banned the APC chairman from visiting the state. In Ogun state, the governor has sworn to ensure that the APC governorship candidate loses out. In Imo, the governor has also promised victory for another party in the state. The result is that APC people in those states have become angry with President Buhari for not solving the imbroglio in the state.
For the opposition, they have never been this united. In fact, while about four APC governors are promising defeats for APC governorship candidates in their state, all PDP governors are uniting to support their candidates. Also, concerning insecurity, director general of the PDP campaign stated that when the PDP handed power to the APC, the North West and North Central did not have security crisis. Today, those regions are hotspots for killings and banditry. This is exemplified by the utter shunning of the APC flag off campaign in the North Central state of Plateau, and the North Western state of Kaduna (Birnin Gwari). This is just the beginning as more definitive activities are bound to happen before the election, which in due course will cement projections like Bloomberg’s that the Buhari administration will face a massive defeat at the polls.
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